Fantasy Football Draft Season is back; History of the projected #1 Fantasy Picks and
their Consensus Curse
Written by: Matt Greeley
The start of the Fantasy Football season is right around the corner, and if you
are like me you can’t wait for the draft. Getting together with your friends who you
hope to beat again this year (finally won my league last year) or you’re hoping to finally
win your first, or maybe you’re just hoping not to embarrass yourself and make it to the
playoffs for the first time. Whatever your hopes are this year, draft night could be the
night that determines whether or not these dreams come true. I can’t wait, and yet
with this exciting moment comes a bit of nerves, “what pick will I have, what if I get first
who should I take, what if I get 12?” I have a word of caution specifically if you wind up
with the number one pick, because although sure we are all hoping for it, it could turn
out to be more of a curse than a blessing.
This year's consensus number one pick is Christian McCaffrey, of course, why
wouldn’t it be? CMC was an absolute stud last year putting up 391.5 fantasy points (in
PPR formats), and scoring a touchdown practically every game. He outscored the next
leading running back Breece Hall by 100 points! That’s an outrageous edge. He was
third overall behind Ceedee Lamb and Josh Allen respectively, and was number one in
fantasy points per game at 24.5, and that said, if you have the number one pick, buyer
beware. I’m not saying this because the 49ers lost the Super Bowl and there is always
a hangover for the losing team. I’m not saying this because the 49ers have the worst
rest disadvantage in the NFL this year at -32 games, an important consideration when
taking a high-volume older running back with an extensive injury history. No those 1
aren’t the reasons at all. The reason for caution when taking the consensus number
one pick is the history and perhaps a curse of the consensus.
2023 - Last year Justin Jefferson was the consensus number one pick going into the
fantasy draft, which seems a little crazy in hindsight with how good CMC was, but
that was what all the experts were saying. JJ number one, it’s a lock, you can’t go wrong, and what happened? It went wrong. Jefferson hurt his hamstring in week 5 against the Chiefs, returned in week 14, and then left in the 2nd quarter with an injury. He missed six games and finished 33rd amongst wide receivers in fantasy points. It's not a number one value to say the least, not his fault, but for fantasy owners that picked him, a bust nonetheless.
2022 - Jonathon Taylor was the guy all the experts were saying, he was a lock to have
a big year, I mean he had a big 2021 he was coming off a 373-point season was
running back number one and was certainly poised to do it again. You know what’s
coming here, he hurt his ankle in week four, and only wound up playing 11 games,
He ranked 28th among running backs and killed fantasy owners who took him.
2021- Take us back to old reliable CMC. He was decidedly the guy to take, and oh
wait he wasn’t old reliable yet, not like this past season. He got hurt in week three
missed five games, and got hurt again in week 12, you get it. He played 7 games, and still
ranked 27th RB with 127 fantasy points somehow, but for a number one pick, it was not
so hot.
2020 - Disaster strikes. CMC, he’s the guy, nope got hurt and played 3 games,
complete bust. That’s four straight years of basically utter disappointment for whoever
got the number one pick in your draft.
2019 - Ok finally we have one that isn’t an abject failure. Saquan Barkley was the man
of the hour on draft night, he was coming off an RB2 finish the year before and was in
his prime, and well it wasn’t a disaster, but he finished 10th overall as the running back
position, mostly because he only played 13 games. Not what you’re hoping for with the
first overall pick.
2018 - This is the last time the hyped-up number-one pick paid off, and that was
Todd Gurley! Remember him? He actually finished 5th overall amongst all fantasy
players, played 14 games averaged 22.1 fantasy points, and helped many people win
their leagues that year, but that was six years ago the last time a so-called lock worked
out. Getting scared yet? Ok let’s keep this going just a little longer to make sure this
isn’t just some crazy bad luck stretch.
2017 - This year was a bit of an outlier, but let’s dissect it a little bit anyway.
There was not a consensus number 1 pick per se that year, but there were two players
that various experts had one or the other as the guy. LeVeon Bell and David Johnson.
LeVeon Bell... did great as RB2 on the year paid off, way to go for those who took
him. For those keeping track, that’s 2/7 so far that paid off (3 if you want to count
Barkley’s top-10 finish). David Johnson, on the other hand, the biggest heartbreak on
this entire list, got hurt in week 1, wrist injury, done for the season, and finished 114th
overall. At least this year you had a 50/50 chance of getting the right guy, but man
that’s brutal if you guessed wrong.
2016 - Another one coming up Antonio Brown, a man who has become a
disappointment off the field was a bit of a bust on the field that year. He was coming off
a terrific season where he was the #1 fantasy receiver and highest scoring non-QB in
2015, but in 2016 after going first in many drafts he finished WR 3 only scoring 230
fantasy points, ranking 28th overall, with 8 non-QB position players finishing higher
than him including Devonta Freeman and Melvin Gordon III. Not exactly a slam dunk.
2015 - Another two-for year. LeVeon Bell and Adrian Peterson were neck and neck in all
the mock drafts before this season. Adrian Peterson...Paid off finished as RB 2 with
230.7 fp. LeVeon, yep you guessed it RB 46, so a complete bust for whomever didn’t
win that year's pick number one coin toss.
2014 - Just to round out the decade, last but not least, and also not worth the number
one hype of that year Shady McCoy. Shady finished as RB12 that year, so not awful,
but tough if you had the number one pick that took him and if you were in a 12-man league
theoretically every other team could have had a better fantasy back then.
So, if you were very confident before reading my fantasy draft doomsday piece
you shouldn’t be! The fact is that fantasy is 25% skill, and 75% luck (backed by
science) so if you get unlucky and have the first overall pick, the pressure and outcome
of your entire fantasy league in your hands on draft night, well, you may want to take a
flyer on Bijan Robinson, Bryce Hall, Ceedee Lamb, (last years leading scorer) or maybe
even a Tyreek Hill or Jamar Chase, instead of the guy everyone including myself right
now is going to say you should take Christian McCaffrey. This is a bad omen and a
bad track record. Of the last decade, only 3 of the 10 top consensus guys turned out to
be as advertised. Half were disastrous busts that cost people their seasons, and a few
were mid-tier with several better options on the board in hindsight. They say you can’t
win your league in the draft, but you can lose it. I’d say you can win it, but you know
what, you might want to just hope someone else gets that first pick and you don’t have
to deal with the pressure of blowing it one minute into your season. Good luck.
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