Dalton Kincaid Pick Breakdown
Updated: Jun 16
Written by: Matt (Hyperfox)
The pick is in. The Bills sent 27 and 130 for 25, grabbing Dalton Kincaid in a shocking move. I'll break down the implications of this move for the Bills, opposing defenses and Fantasy Football.
The Bills:
The Bills have been trying to get a 2nd stud TE for YEARS, most recently OJ Howard for the 2022-23 season (who was cut before the season). This allows them to finally get that 2nd TE and run more 12 personal (Last year the Bills were 2nd last in 12 personal on 1st down). Kincaid is a fantastic receiver with natural instincts, and should be slotted in as a Big Slot (Gonna use #BigSlot to campaign for him to be the starting slot guy). Having a new safety valve, something the bills have lacked since Cole Beasley, and better blocking from 13 personal should help Allen immensely.
The Ceiling: Travis Kelce level production. The Bills should be watching what the Chiefs do with him and copy that.
The Bottom Line: Kincaid needs around 80-90 targets or his seasons a disappointment. 45 from IMac, 25 from Knox, 7 from Morris and a few off Gabe Davis would be reasonable. Ken Dorsey absolutely needs to feed Kincaid Targets and Snap %.
Impact for Defenses:
This move makes the Bills even harder to guard. #BigSlot creates the Matchup nightmare that the Chiefs exploit. Most LBs can't cover a dynamic guy like Kincaid or Kelce, and most corners are too small. Doubling him will pull one of the deep safeties down which can be exploited by Gabe Davis, and Diggs needs to be bracketed as well. Good luck Defenses.
The Ceiling: Essentially uncoverable and 45 PPG
The Bottom Line: This should free up everyone allowing the offense to roll.
DYNASTY FANTASY FOOTBALL IMPACT:
If he gets the needed target share, Kincaid could be a top 3 TE easily. In the late 1st round he's a great pick up. The range I'd expect him to go is 1.05 to 2.02 (Assuming standard 12 man Superflex, TEP or Not). You may be able to get him late, as many players are gun shy on taking TEs early. Exploit this. Top TEs, especially in TEP leagues, can be flipped for a lot of value.
The Ceiling: TE1. Travis Kelce.
The Bottom Line: Kincaid should be a productive TE who rakes in around 120 or so points in half PPR 1 point TEP. In full PPR 1 point TEP your looking at 160 points BEFORE any TDs or yards. Solid investment, even if it takes him a few years to get to those target shares. Think Aaron Hernandez for year 1 or 2.
Tl;Dr:
Floor is Aaron Hernandez production for a year or 2, ceiling is Travis kelce.
He should get around 80ish targets minimum in a successful year
Matchup nightmare for opposing teams