Updated: Sep 6, 2022
3 Players at QB, RB, and WR You Should Trade Away This Offseason
Now that the Super Bowl has passed (congrats to the Rams by the way), it is a great time to gauge league interest in players on your Dynasty rosters. Your leaguemates might be in Dynasty hibernation mode - but the best way to wake everyone up is by putting some players on the trading block.
Today, I’ll be looking across the league and discussing some players who I think are in a great “sell” window. Either their value is at a peak, or the return on investment is about as high as it is going to be moving forward. If these guys are on your team, maybe it’s time to start thinking about cashing out. If they’re on another team, it probably is a good idea to stay away. Let’s start with some Quarterbacks.
QB Sell Candidates:
Daniel Jones - while the front office has been building up Jones for the last 3 seasons, it has not translated into success on the field just yet. Jones is a good enough runner that he finds ways to deliver fantasy points when plays break down. However, his days might be numbered as the starting QB for the New York Giants. He will turn 25 this offseason, which might be appealing to dynasty managers. If you can get another starting QB, or even a bundle of players with rookie picks, it might not be the worst move to trade him away. Jones is currently my dynasty QB 28, and he has fallen from the QB 20ish range he was at prior to the season. I would sell him for any 2nd round pick in a 1QB league, and would look for a late 1st/early 2nd round pick in a 2QB or SuperFlex league.
Carson Wentz - There is a lot of uncertainty around Wentz and his future with the Colts. After trading their upcoming 1st round pick to the Eagles this past offseason, Wentz was disappointing after failing to lead the Colts to the playoffs. He was somewhat productive as a passer, but the problem for Wentz’s fantasy production was the scheme in Indianapolis being run-first. If he stays in Indy, I cannot see him improving too much on his fantasy upside from last season, especially if the Colts do not address the wide receiver position this offseason. If he goes somewhere else, he’s likely a bridge QB until his new team drafts another guy. He’s in the same tier as Jones, but has less upside. I would sell him for multiple late-round rookie picks in a 1QB league, and would be looking for a mid-to-early 2nd round pick in a 2QB/SF league.
Derek Carr - The Las Vegas QB quietly had a career year this past season, passing for just over 4,800 yards. However, he was only the QB16 in points per game. Carr will be turning 31 this offseason, and even though he has been in the league since 2014, he has never finished a season higher than the QB13. With the Raiders making the playoffs this past season, as well as his strong passing stats, Carr is a perfect sell-high candidate. His career so far has shown that his best outcome is a low-end QB1, but his age tells us that he is probably one bad year away from the Raiders looking at new options. Carr’s price is likely nothing more than a mid-2nd round rookie pick in a 1QB league; but in 2QB/SF, you could probably get a mid-1st round pick from a QB-needy team.
RB Sell Candidates:
Dalvin Cook - Before you say anything, let’s look at some facts. First, Cook will be turning 27 this season, and we typically don’t see many running backs produce into their late 20s (aside from outliers like Adrian Peterson, Frank Gore, Derrick Henry, etc.). On top of that, Cook is signed through 2026, but has an “out” in his contract after this year - which would save the Vikings over $10 million in 2023. I don’t think he’s a sell because of Alexander Mattison being around - I think he’s a sell because his decline is coming soon, whether we like it or not. All the signs around his age and potential contract option point to him (likely) not producing in Minnesota for the foreseeable future. I would rather sell Cook now, while you can still get a good return for him, as opposed to a year from now if he flames out in 2022. I would put Cook on the trade block ASAP in dynasty and see if anyone wants to send me a 1st round pick, plus another asset in return. I recently traded away Cook and CeeDee Lamb for CMC and a 2023 1st round rookie pick in one of my dynasty leagues - to me, that’s a smash.
Ezekiel Elliot - for many of the same reasons I listed for Cook, Zeke is also a sell candidate. Both players have expensive contracts, both players are at the end of their prime, and you likely can still get decent value for both. While you will likely get more interest from managers with Dalvin Cook, Zeke is still appealing for a few reasons. He is the starting running back on one of the best offenses in the NFL, he gets almost all of the red zone work on his team, and he can catch passes. Like Cook, Zeke is a guy who I would rather sell early as opposed to a year from now when his value craters. I would ask for a 1st round pick for Zeke, but would accept a deal with an early-mid 2nd and another piece in return.
James Conner - If you are still holding on to Conner in a dynasty league, you missed his peak sell window. He’s honestly had a couple - once in Pittsburgh when he took over for Le'veon Bell, and then again this past season when he was the only healthy running back in Arizona. He was moved for a first round pick in-season in a couple of my own dynasty leagues. You certainly shouldn’t expect to get THAT kind of a return right now…but you can always try a sales pitch to get close. Conner is currently the only RB on the Cardinals’ roster aside from Eno Benjamin. He proved that he can compete in an every-down role last year. Unless the Cardinals sign a running back in free agency, they likely will open the season with him getting a majority of the work. Definitely get him off of your roster before the NFL Draft. If I could get a 2nd round pick for Conner right now, I’m taking that deal all day.
WR Sell Candidates:
Cooper Kupp - Starting off wide receiver with a spicy one. My argument for selling Kupp is simple: he’s had the best season of his career, and we likely won’t see him have another year close to this one in terms of production. Almost everything went right for Kupp this season - a QB upgrade in the offseason, Robert Woods getting injured, bringing in OBJ to soak up extra coverage, Cam Akers missing most of the season…it was the perfect storm for the passing game to filter through him. Kupp will be turning 29 this year. I do not expect teams to leave single-coverage on him ever again. I expect his production goes down next year, simply because we’ve never really seen a player do what he did in 2021. Kupp is arguably a top 3 WR for many players, so I would look for at least 2 1st round picks in return for him. I would also look to move him for a 1st round pick and another player with upside, like Brandon Aiyuk, Terry McLaurin, or DJ Moore.
Amon-Ra St. Brown - Another spicy take. St. Brown performed well above expectations last season after being drafted on the final day of the NFL Draft. His value in all formats has shot up as a result, which is a nice tribute to his production. However, I have a few concerns about St. Brown’s long-term upside. First, almost all of his production this season came after both De’Andre Swift and TJ Hockenson were out. Both of those players were the top options in the Lions’ passing game before they were injured. I don’t expect St. Brown to be getting 10+ targets a game at the beginning of the season. Aside from that, the Lions will almost certainly go after another talented pass-catcher in the draft this year. They have one of the weakest skill-position groups in the league, and many mock drafts have them taking a high-profile WR at the end of the 1st round. St. Brown is a player who is about as close to his peak value-wise as he is going to get - it’s a great time to capitalize. My recommendation is to sell him for an early 2nd round pick and another starting player on top, if not more. Some people will pay a premium for him since he is so young.
Jerry Jeudy - The Alabama product was one of more highly-touted prospects at the wide receiver position in his draft class. After being drafted by the Broncos, Jeudy has suffered from poor QB play, target competition, and injuries. Last season, the Broncos surprised many people by re-signing both Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick to multi-year extensions, which muddies the water even more on Jeudy’s long-term upside. Without a major upgrade at QB this offseason, or even a change of scenery for Jeudy, his future upside looks bleak. Because of his age and draft capital, you shouldn’t have any problem finding some leaguemates who are interested in acquiring him. I would try to flip Jeudy for a late first round pick and a proven veteran WR who underperformed last year (thinking Kenny Golloday, Allen Robinson, Curtis Samuel, Will Fuller, etc.).
Dynasty championships are won in the offseason - stay active on the trade block and look to capitalize whenever you can get a good value. Stay tuned for more sell candidates later this offseason, as well as some players you should be looking to add in trades in my next buy article. Follow along with me this offseason @AQuinnFF on Twitter.