Updated: Aug 28
by John May @Juandemayo
Betting on a season-long NFL-specific outcome is always a risky proposition, and usually, the odds on the favorite, make it not the best value play.
There are a few value picks available that might be worth a flyer, so let’s dive into what a few of those are for this upcoming season.
MVP: The best value play here is Trevor Lawrence. He had a big year last year, throwing for 25 touchdowns and running for 5 more to go along with over 4,000 passing yards and almost 300 yards rushing. Adding a dynamic receiver like Calvin Ridley plus another year of development he could have a monster year. He is available at around +1500 on most apps, much better value than Mahomes or Burrow who might win it but are +600 and +700.
AFC North: The Bengals improved their offensive line with the signing of Orlando Brown in the offseason and are available at +150 or better. The Ravens will be better with a healthy Lamar Jackson, but I don’t see many teams being able to contain the Bengals' electric offense.
AFC East: A little bit of a flyer here (don’t recommend laying anything big), but Dolphins at +300 are good value. The risk here is relying on Tua to stay healthy. But if he does stay healthy that offense is going to be electric and their division opponents and everyone else is going to have trouble keeping up on a weekly basis.
Playoffs Yes or No: Steelers at +130 (slightly more or less on some apps) are a solid value play to make the playoffs, with their consistency to be near playoff hunt even with holes on the roster. Their schedule looks easy on paper playing the AFC South and NFC West plus the Packers and Raiders.
To win it all: Do not recommend taking this one, so many variables regarding playoff matchups, weather in playoffs, and many more. But if you are looking for value the Jaguars at +3000 are the best value you are going to find. They won a playoff game last year and added a big weapon to the mix in Calvin Ridley.