Written by: Austin Thomas
Year after year we get acquainted with unpredictable running backs to reach fantasy glory. Intrigued by the revolving door of new faces at the position, I decided to compile data on all the fantasy running backs that have scored 200+ PPR points along with all the RB1s (top-12 per season) the past ten seasons to see if any information correlates year to year to help identify key ingredients to fantasy success. Thanks to our friends over at FantasyPros, I was able to go back to the 2013 season up until last year's 2022 campaign and found 151 entries to reach the threshold of 200+ PPR fantasy points. In total, it resulted in 73 different running backs throughout ten seasons being able to achieve the goal of 200 points, some being repeat members. Regarding the top-12, there's an average of seven different running backs that reach this prestigious club each season. Let's jump into my discovery to see the components of a top fantasy running back.
Availability:
Let's get the obvious out of the way first. Of course, the availability of a player plays a factor in reaching the 200-point benchmark. Of all fantasy players that qualified there was an average of 15 games played per season. Like most studies, there are always a few outliers to beat the odds. In those cases, volume played a major factor in those backs still achieving the goal of 200 PPR points. For example, the lowest amount games played that netted 200 points, along with a top-12 finish to boot, was ten games; Ezekiel Elliott in 2017. Elliott, in ten games, was able to rack up 1252 total yards on 268 touches with nine touchdowns. In perspective, Elliott had 26.8 touches per game, second among all qualifying running backs that season, which was part of the reason he was able to reach that high level of production in so few games. Many other outliers weren't that advantageous but did have similar fortunes despite missing one to three games under the 15-game average. Bottom line, of the 151 entries only 36 played less than the average - that is under 25%, 23.84% to be exact, of the qualifying participants. In theory, it is possible for a player to miss significant time and still produce a high-point total season, but you're banking on hitting on that sub-25 % outlier rate. Naturally, injuries, suspensions, or other extracurricular reasons are fluky and can't always be predicted, but certain players do have a trend of inheriting repeat injuries or off-field issues and inevitably miss a few games. All and all, games played do play a part in the big picture, and as long as a player can sustain playing time during the season then they're one step closer to embracing the final goal of 200+ points.
Relative Athletic Score:
The Relative Athletic Score, or the RAS, is a testing system that scores the overall athletic profile of an athlete based on their performance at the NFL Scouting Combine and/or their Pro Day. When I first thought of examining this metric I assumed that all the athletes would have a relatively high score or the very least slightly above average, but that wasn't necessarily true. Analyzing the statistics on the RAS website my assumption, for the most part, was accurate in the sense of the overall entries averaged a 7.47 RAS score out of a possible 10.00. On the flip side, there was at least one player that scored under a 5.50 RAS to finish as a top-12 player every single season during this study. The gap between the highest and lowest scored RAS is 7.68 points; Saquon Barkley is at 9.97 versus Jeremy Hill at 2.29. Unfortunately, there were four players with incomplete scorecards that did not register a full RAS profile generating a "N/A" RAS card: Fred Jackson, Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler, and Todd Gurley. The better athlete you are the higher chance you'll have at fantasy success, but there are some instances where a low RAS player can produce at a high level, however, not many were able to sustain that into multiple 200-point efforts. It's still a safe bet to say the better athletes have a better showing as fantasy assets while only 18, out of 73 players, that scored a sub 5.50 RAS were 200+ point fantasy players. Adding on, of those 18 only 7 of them did it multiple times. Look for the above-average to elite athletes when selecting your next running back!
**Below is a chart of all the sub 5.50 RAS scorers between 2013-2022 to reach 200 points and their top-12 finishes.
NAME | RAS | 200 POINT FINISH | TOP-12 FINISH |
CJ ANDERSON | 5.49 | 1 | 1 |
JORDAN HOWARD | 5.41 | 1 | 1 |
DAVID MONTGOMERY | 5.16 | 1 | 1 |
KAREEM HUNT | 5.15 | 3 | 3 |
ARIAN FOSTER | 5.14 | 1 | 1 |
JAMES WHITE | 4.94 | 2 | 1 |
LeGARRETTE BLOUNT | 4.88 | 1 | 1 |
DALVIN COOK | 4.65 | 4 | 3 |
EDDIE LACY | 4.58 | 2 | 2 |
JAMAAL WILLIAMS | 4.55 | 1 | 0 |
JAMES CONNER | 4.33 | 3 | 2 |
CARLOS HYDE | 4.23 | 1 | 1 |
JUSTIN FORSETT | 4.18 | 1 | 1 |
RHAMONDRE STEVENSON | 3.98 | 1 | 1 |
TARIK COHEN | 3.92 | 1 | 1 |
MARK INGRAM | 2.57 | 4 | 4 |
DEVONTA FREEMAN | 2.34 | 3 | 2 |
JEREMY HILL | 2.29 | 1 | 1 |
Contract Year:
The myth of NFL teams pounding their running backs into the ground during their contracts' final year has some merit. According to Spotrac, 27 entries played on the final year of their contract in some capacity, whether it was an expiring multi-year contract, a one-year deal, franchise tag, or even a 5th-year option. Not every top running back will be in a contract year, so we'll focus on just the players that were for this exercise. Of the 27, 19 matched or had a career-high in total touches that season - only three of those players went on to exceed their previous career best - although one entry, Derrick Henry, broke his previous career high in back-to-back contract seasons (first time was the final year of his rookie deal, the following season was on the franchise tag). Those 19 players averaged a whopping 109 more total touches in their expiring contract season than their career averages. With a modest 70% of contract-year players obtaining career-high touches, I'd say you should be taking a closer look at the running backs in the final year of their contracts with a path of getting important touches for their respective teams.
**Below is a chart of the players to shatter their career averages on their way to career highs during their contract seasons.
YEAR | NAME | TOTAL TOUCHES | CAREER TOUCH SEASON AVG | CONTRACT TYPE |
---|---|---|---|---|
2013 | KNOWSHON MORENO | 301 | 172 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
2013 | JOIQUE BELL | 219 | 121 | 1-YEAR DEAL (3RD CONTRACT) |
2014 | DeMARCO MURRAY | 449 | 273 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
2014 | JUSTIN FORSETT | 279 | 114 | 1-YEAR DEAL (4TH CONTRACT) |
2015 | DOUG MARTIN | 321 | 210 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
2015 | CHRIS IVORY | 277 | 148 | EXPIRING 3RD CONTRACT |
2016 | LeGARRETTE BLOUNT | 306 | 173 | 1-YEAR DEAL (7TH CONTRACT) |
2016 | ISAIAH CROWELL | 238 | 199 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
2017 | LE'VEON BELL | 406 | 249 | FRANCHISE TAG |
2017 | CARLOS HYDE | 299 | 173 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
2019 | AUSTIN EKELER | 224 | 200 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
2019 | DERRICK HENRY | 321 | 268 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
2020 | DERRICK HENRY | 397 | 268 | FRANCHISE TAG |
2020 | MIKE DAVIS | 224 | 91 | EXPIRING 4TH CONTRACT |
2021 | CORDARRELLE PATTERSON | 205 | 75 | 1-YEAR DEAL (4TH CONTRACT) |
2022 | SAQUON BARKLEY | 352 | 240 | 5TH-YEAR OPTION |
2022 | TONY POLLARD | 232 | 158 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
2022 | JAMAAL WILLIAMS | 274 | 179 | EXPIRING 2ND CONTRACT |
2022 | MILES SANDERS | 279 | 216 | EXPIRING ROOKIE DEAL |
Draft Capital:
Undoubtedly, players selected within the first three rounds dominated the charts at an astounding 77% among those that got drafted. That's just over three-quarters of all the players! However, what if I told you that was just a misconception? Notice how it says "among those that got drafted", that's because I neglected to inform you about the undrafted free agents that went on to sign with teams and have fantasy success at some point in their careers. Factor in these players and that total drops down to 64% of overall players. It's somewhat baffling how adding in players that didn't even get drafted would lower the percentage by 13%. Just like evaluating players before the draft, sometimes there are misleading elements, such as health or off-field issues, that aren't in the big picture that leads to one's draft day slide. Regardless, the higher draft capital a player has the better their chances are at obtaining the goal, but it's not impossible for those later picks, or undrafted players, to outduel those drafted ahead of them. Down below are two charts showing that the higher the draft capital, the better chances you have of becoming a top fantasy asset. So if you're torn between two players, chances are the one with higher draft capital will have better success in the NFL.
**Oddly enough, undrafted free agents had the same number of 200+ performances as players taken in the third round during the ten-year span, as you'll see on the chart below.
ROUND TAKEN | 200 POINT FINISHERS |
1ST | 19 |
2ND | 16 |
3RD | 12 |
4TH | 8 |
5TH | 3 |
6TH | 1 |
7TH | 2 |
UNDRAFTED | 12 |
**The chart below shows the success rates of RBs drafted since 2013 per round.
ROUND TAKEN | 200 POINT SUCCESS RATE | TOP-12 SUCCESS RATE |
1ST | 9/12 (75%) | 8/12 (67%) |
2ND | 13/27 (48%) | 8/27 (30%) |
3RD | 9/29 (31%) | 7/29 (24%) |
4TH | 6/44 (14%) | 6/44 (14%) |
5TH | 3/30 (10%) | 3/30 (10%) |
6TH | 1/36 (2.78%) | 1/36 (2.78%) |
7TH | 1/36 (2.78%) | 1/36 (2.78%) |
Offensive Rank (Yards Per Game):
Noticeably, having a top-tier offense would put any player in a situation for better opportunities in the fantasy world, but it's not an automatic death sentence for success. Sure, the math is simple for good offenses, longer drives equals more touches while scoring plenty of points results in higher touchdown upside. Six of the past ten seasons have had the number one offense feature a top-12 fantasy running back alone. Just imagine the number of players you'd have if you expand it to a top-five offense. Additionally, the average offensive team rank of these players is a top-13 offense. So yeah, it's not brain science knowing a superior offense will produce fantasy studs, but that's not what we're trying to prove here. We want to bust the myth of "bad" offenses not being able to supply high-end fantasy assets. Well, out of those ten seasons, three players were on last-place finish offenses and scored 200+ PPR fantasy points - two of which finished top-12. Not enough evidence for you? Okay, since 2015 there has been at least one running back to score at least 200 PPR points each season within a bottom-five offense - twelve total in eight seasons. Understandably, it is more difficult to find the diamond in the rough of the "bad" offenses, but you shouldn't rule these players out completely just because they'll be on a bottom-ranked offense. The fact is you can find a top running back on any offensive-ranked team, good or bad. You just have to follow the volume of touches when dipping into lower-ranked offenses.
Age:
They say father time is undefeated, but does age really matter for an NFL running back? We hear about the dreaded 30-year-old running back story annually and quite frankly, it's mostly true. The unfortunate part about being a running back in the NFL is that franchises don't value the position all that highly and continuously recycle them, so it's extremely difficult and rare for a player to stay consistently productive into their 30s while orchestrating fantasy-relevant performances. Trying to debunk the 30's downhill narrative, 9 running backs were able to deliver a 200-point fantasy season at the age of 30 or older, all of which was a top-12 finish, over the last decade. In comparison, 20 rookies were able to surpass the 200-point target during the 10-season timeframe alone. In fact, 62 of the 73 players (85%!) first surpassed the 200 total during their rookie contracts. The numbers present that younger players are more likely to emerge as 200-point fantasy players. On occasion, we'll see a veteran release the old man strength from within to reach fantasy supremacy, but you'll have better luck diving into the fountain of youth when selecting your running backs.
**Below is a chart of the rookies and the players 30+ years old that have reached 200 points.
AGE | ROOKIES | AGE 30+ PLAYERS | AGE |
21 | LE'VEON BELL | MATT FORTE | 30 |
21 | TODD GURLEY | DANNY WOODHEAD | 30 |
21 | EZEKIEL ELLIOTT | ADRIAN PETERSON | 30 |
21 | CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY | LeGARRETTE BLOUNT | 30 |
21 | SAQUON BARKLEY | MARK INGRAM | 30 |
21 | JONATHAN TAYLOR | CORDARRELLE PATTERSON | 30 |
21 | JAVONTE WILLIAMS | FRED JACKSON | 32 |
22 | GIOVANI BERNARD | DeANGELO WILLIAMS | 32 |
22 | JEREMY HILL | FRANK GORE | 33 |
22 | JORDAN HOWARD | ā | ā |
22 | KAREEM HUNT | ā | ā |
22 | ALVIN KAMARA | ā | ā |
22 | LEONARD FOURNETTE | ā | ā |
22 | MILES SANDERS | ā | ā |
22 | JAMES ROBINSON | ā | ā |
22 | ANTONIO GIBSON | ā | ā |
22 | KENNETH WALKER | ā | ā |
23 | EDDIE LACY | ā | ā |
24 | DAVID JOHNSON | ā | ā |
24 | PHILLIP LINDSAY | ā | ā |
Stats:
Several different stat categories come into effect when looking at the previous top players. We all can sit here and calculate player projections or career averages along with other statistical data, but at the end of the day, there are too many variables to pinpoint an accurate measurement of a 200-point scorer each season. For example, let me introduce you to 2022 Jamaal Williams who led the league with 17 rushing touchdowns. Maybe 2013 Pierre Thomas would like a word with his 77 receptions, first among all running backs that season. Or even 2014 DeMarco Murray with his 449 total touches, which was by far the most of any running back. Can't forget about Christian McCaffrey's 23.67% gigantic target share in 2019. The offensive snap share percentage didn't really come into play depending on your role either. It went as high as 96% snap share (2016 Le'Veon Bell) and as low as 37% snap share (2015 David Johnson). Again, depending on the role, the snap share didn't matter much if they were being utilized while on the field. Truth is, stats are unpredictable from season to season and the top fantasy running backs come in all shapes and sizes, physically and statistically. Despite this obstacle, and the helpful information from Pro Football Reference, I was able to break it down into three different categories: The Receptionist, The Workhorse, and the TD Vulture.
The Receptionist:
Most fantasy players value receptions and aim for that 50-catch season from their running backs, but it's actually the least efficient stat to reach the 200-point status. Since 2013, there have been 106 entries to secure at least 50 receptions, but 33 of them failed to reach 200 points - that is a 69% hit rate. If you stray away from the air attack and look toward the 1000-yard rushers, they had an 87% hit rate with 94 out of 108 applicants locking in a 200-point total. Now let's add the receptions to the rushing attempts and get their overall touches involved. Runners that have a high touch count also resulted in a high hit rate percentage while 85 out of 105 players with 250 total touches (81%) have obtained a 200-point season. I understand a reception is more valuable than a single carry, but just being a target hog in an offense won't translate to fantasy success. Among all the 200-point scorers, only one of the players (2019 James White) that had over 50 receptions and under 250 total touches failed to surpass 1000 total yards. Reducing the total touches to 200 or less with 50 receptions, we get eight players and every single one of them had a target share of at least 16%. If you're going to be mainly used as a receptionist, you'll have to make the most of your touches and exceed 1000 total yards, score many touchdowns, and/or have a large target share of at least 16%.
The Workhorse:
The days of a "workhorse" running back are dwindling as the league turns to more of a running back-by-committee approach. Finding players that are going to give you a high percentage of touches are rare. According to the staffers of Fantasy Points, there have been 47 players to gain 300+ total touches since the 2015 season. That's an average of six 300-touch players per year. In that same span, there's been 105 to get at least 250 total touches which are about 13 players per year. Just under half of the NFL teams rely on a single running back to be their main contributor while less than 20% give a lucky player an elite number of touches. In this study there was only one running back to have 300+ touches and not become a 200-point scorer; 2016 Todd Gurley, but he just missed the cutoff by less than two points. As mentioned above in the receptionist section, players with 250 touches have an 81% hit rate. Of those that had 250+ touches and failed to get 200-point status, there was one common denominator, every single one of them had less than 50 receptions. If you're going rely on a "workhorse" back in the 250-touch range as your anchor, you better make sure they have receiving upside. Otherwise, as most would expect, a lot of touches equal a very good chance at fantasy hierarchy.
The TD Vulture:
Scoring touchdowns are the most exciting thing in football, right? It's what we're all hoping for in fantasy, too, after all. However, touchdowns are a difficult stat to predict as 29% (21 out of 73) of the players were able to record back-to-back double-digit total touchdown seasons. Then only four out of those 21 players were able to go three or more consecutive seasons. Inexplicably, there was only one player during the last ten seasons to have multiple consecutive double-digit total touchdown seasons; Melvin Gordon in 2016-2018 with the Chargers and in 2020-2021 with the Broncos. Not only was Gordon the only player to string along consecutive double-digit seasons twice, but he also did it with two separate teams - impressive! Predicting the players to obtain double-digit scores is beneficial, nonetheless, as 75% of the players over the last decade that has had a double-digit touchdown season topped 200 points. Only 14 players that scored double-digit touchdowns failed to match their counterparts, which equates to about one player per season. Commanding a double-digit total touchdown season is a tough achievement, but if you're able to calculate the correct players to do so, then you've got a high chance of having a 200+ point scorer.
There is a lot of information to breakdown and digest, but the reality is these are the more predictive key components that make up most top fantasy running backs: active for around 15 games, a RAS of 5.50 or higher, high draft capital, an offensive rank of at least 13th, younger in age while still on their rookie contract and specialize in at least one of the three stat categories above (The Receptionist, The Workhorse or The TD Vulture). Much like fluky injuries, stat projections can vary and can have a wide range of outcomes, so trying to pinpoint the statistics would be maddening. Although you can still get an idea of yearly stats, it's a less foretelling outcome on how players and teams will divide the touches each season. Hopefully, this article assists you in making the right decision making your next running back selection, but remember, this is more of a guide to help identify possible breakouts than a guarantee of future success.
If you want to check out all the data from this article or use it as a reference, you can find that information here. I'll be constantly adding to this spreadsheet and updating it annually after each season concludes. I'm excited to see how this grows each year and see if we can better our estimates with the data moving forward.
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