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Why Davis Mills Should be on your Watch List for 2022

Updated: Jun 16

Why Davis Mills Should be on your Watch List for 2022

Written by: Fernando Jeronimo

Davis Mills has been my guy since he came into the league. He started his rookie season on a slow note averaging only 10.14 fantasy points in his first eight starts. Weeks 5 (vs NE) and 8 (vs LAR) showed some flashing scoring 23+ points in those two weeks. He also did not play during Week 1 and 9-12 (Wk10 - bye week), missing a total of four games but he closed off the season on a high note.

Based on the last five games of the season, Mills finished as a top 12 quarterback. If you average out of those games he would have averaged 17.56 points a game which is not bad, especially for a rookie. If Mills kept that pace all season he would have finished as a QB1 and would have finished inside the top 10.

There are some risks in drafting him because of how many opportunities he will have. In Dynasty leagues especially because if the Houston Texans do not finish with a decent record, they could be shopping for a new quarterback in the 2023 draft. His value is all over the place based on who owns him in leagues. Personally, I have worked on getting him in all my dynasty leagues and overall I have had to pay a second on average for him but there were times I was able to get him for two-thirds. I do not think it is a bad investment if the price is right and I defiantly do not think based on the risk that I would be paying a first-round pick for someone that does not have a secure job.

Based on FantasyPros, his consensus ADP in redraft leagues is currently averaging out at pick 179 which would put him around QB29 and I think finishing at QB28 last season was his ceiling and I expect him to get finish somewhere between QB14-QB18 which is a solid QB2 but with potential QB1 upside.

Here are the individual ADPs based on the platform:

FANTRAX - #177/QB27

RTSPORTS - #173/QB28

SLEEPER - #214/QB29

I think his value is great right now on where he is being drafted in redraft leagues and should be owned in all leagues since it does not cost anything to grab him. In Dynasty, I can see the concern but if the price is right, I am willing to trade for him and take the risk that he could only play one more season as a starter.

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